Will your Black Friday offer make money?
Compare up to three offers against running no offer at all. See what each does to revenue, margin and profit after acquisition cost, and how much extra conversion it needs to pay for itself.
- 1Enter your store's numbers
- 2Pick up to three offers
- 3See which one earns the most
Your store
Use figures for the sale period you're planning, for example Black Friday to Cyber Monday. Rough numbers are fine to start with.
Your offers
Pick a mechanic for each slot. Conversion lift and take-up are your best estimates; the results also show a cautious case at half the lift.
Results
Profit after acquisition cost for the period, compared with running no offer.
Profit after acquisition cost
The dashed line is running no offer. Bars past it earn more than doing nothing.
Full breakdown
What the terms mean
- Net revenue
- What customers pay for goods after the offer, plus shipping they pay, minus refunds from returns.
- CM1 (contribution margin 1)
- Net revenue minus product cost (including free gifts and free units), fulfilment, shipping you pay, payment fees and margin lost to returns. What orders contribute before marketing.
- Profit after acquisition cost
- CM1 minus marketing spend. Spend is held at the no-offer level (your CAC × the new customers you'd win without an offer), so an offer that converts better lowers your effective CAC.
- Break-even conversion lift
- How much more conversion an offer needs to match running no offer. Below zero means it earns more per order, so it can lose some conversion and still match.
- Cautious case
- The same offer if conversion lift comes in at half your estimate. If an offer only wins at full lift, treat it with care.
- Store credit, gifts, free units
- Credit is costed at its value × expected redemption on a later order. Gifts and free units are costed at your landed cost.
This is a planning model, not a forecast. Lift and take-up are assumptions: test them against last year's numbers.
Want us to check these numbers before you launch?
The calculator runs on your estimates. In a 30-minute review we check them against your real Shopify data and walk your Black Friday funnel with you.
- Your offer pressure-tested against last year's orders, margin and returns
- Your threshold checked against real basket sizes, with the bridge products that close the gap
- Your offer traced across the ten surfaces it has to appear on, and where it drops out
- What we'd change first, written up after the call
No deck and no pitch. Free, and you keep the write-up whether or not we work together.
Your best offer and its numbers will appear here.
Download the PDF or copy the summary below and add it to the booking notes, so we start with your numbers rather than a blank page.
Save or share your results
Download a one-page PDF report straight to your device, or copy a summary for Slack, email or the booking notes. Nothing you enter is sent to us.