Will your Black Friday offer make money?
A bigger discount isn’t always a better offer.
Compare up to three offers against running no offer at all. See what each does to revenue, margin and profit after acquisition cost, and how much extra conversion it needs to pay for itself.
- 1Enter your store's numbers
- 2Pick up to three offers
- 3See which one earns the most
Your store
Use figures for the sale period you're planning, for example Black Friday to Cyber Monday. Rough numbers are fine to start with.
Your offers
Pick a mechanic for each slot. Conversion lift and take rate are your best estimates; the results also show a cautious case at half the lift.
Results
Contribution after marketing (CM2, your profit after CAC) for the period, compared with running no offer. Marketing spend is held at the no-offer level, so a better-converting offer lowers your effective CAC rather than adding ad spend.
Contribution after marketing (CM2)
Your profit after CAC for each offer. The dashed line is running no offer; bars past it earn more than doing nothing.
Full breakdown
What the terms mean
- AOV (average order value)
- Average revenue per order at full price, before any offer. Threshold offers aim to lift it.
- Net revenue
- What customers pay for goods after the offer, plus shipping they pay, minus refunds from returns.
- CM1 (contribution margin)
- Net revenue minus all variable costs: product cost (including free gifts and free units), fulfilment, shipping you pay, payment fees and margin lost to returns. What each order contributes before marketing.
- CM2 (contribution after marketing)
- CM1 minus marketing spend. This is the profit-after-CAC headline. Spend is held at the no-offer level (CAC × the new customers you'd win without an offer), so an offer that converts better lowers your effective CAC rather than adding ad spend.
- Take rate
- The share of all orders that qualify for, and use, the offer. The rest of the model treats the other orders as baseline.
- Redemption rate
- For store credit or cashback, the share of credit that actually gets spent on a later order. That is what it costs you.
- Discount depth
- How much of the order value you give away, as a percentage. A gift or threshold can deliver perceived value at a lower effective discount.
- Conversion lift
- Extra conversion the offer wins from the same traffic and ad spend, versus running no offer.
- Break-even conversion lift
- How much more conversion an offer needs just to match running no offer. Below zero means it earns more per order, so it can lose some conversion and still match.
- First-order payback
- CM1 per order divided by effective CAC. Below 1.0× means the first order doesn't cover acquisition, so it relies on repeat purchases.
- Cautious case
- The same offer if conversion lift comes in at half your estimate. If an offer only wins at full lift, treat it with care.
This is a planning model, not a forecast. Conversion lift and take rate are assumptions: test them against last year's numbers.
Want us to check these numbers before you launch?
The calculator runs on your estimates. In a 30-minute review we check them against your real Shopify data and walk your Black Friday funnel with you.
- Your offer pressure-tested against last year's orders, margin and returns
- Your threshold checked against real basket sizes, with the bridge products that close the gap
- Your offer traced across the ten surfaces it has to appear on, and where it drops out
- What we'd change first, written up after the call
No deck and no pitch. Free, and you keep the write-up whether or not we work together.
Your best offer and its numbers will appear here.
Copy the summary below and paste it into the booking notes, so we start with your numbers rather than a blank page.
Save or share your results
Download a one-page PDF report, or copy a summary for Slack, email or the booking notes.